How to Bet Parlays in Sports

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.

A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you would still make the bet?

A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't should be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the effect of luck to the best extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.

As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.

I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the game, and the under in the initial half with under in the game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each and every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.

At first glance, this were a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.

Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By  Additional hints  of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of among the parlays, the "over" in the first half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to let you parlay first half to game. Should they do allow you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken up to the cleaners.

There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.

Any game in which the total is less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and boost your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an impression on the side or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win if you have no opinion.

You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia will cover the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, in that case your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.

When you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there exists a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.

Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the medial side to the total in exactly the same game, because progressively more are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.