How to Bet Parlays in Sports
The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you would still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting it doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. khuyến mãi new88 tries to eliminate the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each and every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. If they do let you do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and increase your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an opinion privately or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win in case you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the overall game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, in that case your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. Due to this fact, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
If you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there exists a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in exactly the same game, because a growing number of are realizing that these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you should consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.