Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. Lots of table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the back wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps which can be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. Simply because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors usually do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For instance, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will assist you over time. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. link okvip between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points lower than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.
