Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates much like some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. link Hi88 are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the point that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. It is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For instance, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you in the long term. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 and even 10. The difference between your house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.