Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some form of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. A great deal of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. thabet that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. The reason being most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For example, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you in the end. First of all, the very best value of most parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you should understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are likely to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.