Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may even have the privilege of working with some kind of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps which can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. The reason being most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
KingFun assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help over time. First of all, the best value of most parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a glance at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.