Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates much like some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may even have the privilege of working with some sort of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Hi88 of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. There are also steps that could be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. The reason being most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you in the long term. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a glance at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.