Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some type of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
New88 is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. A lot of table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that could be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. The reason being most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For instance, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help you in the end. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between the house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points lower than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.